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Category Archives: Indian Economy

Google & InMobi

Posted on by Posted in Advertisement, Africa, Apple, Bay Area, Business, China, Entrepreneurship, Events, General, Google, IIT, India, Indian Economy, Inspiration, iPhone, IPL, ISB, Management, Marketing, Sales, Success, US Economy, USA, Views Leave a comment

Today, as I was reading through the article about InMobi, an Indian startup that has been consistently getting rave reviews in the market. I have been always been a huge fan of Young Turks and that is one thing which has always inspired and motivated me through thick and thin lines of my career and I am sure it will continue to do so. I take this opportunity to thank CNBC TV18 for such an amazing program. But this article is not about CNBC TV18, it is about InMobi.

Till early this year, I don’t know why but I never heard about this startup at all. But with this article, I was refreshed about my memory of InMobi when I first heard about it in January. As I browsed through their website today, it was a great feeling. Time is changing and so does the tides have started to flow from the reverse direction. Gone were those days when the market was driven from developed countries like USA. I was not fortunate to be in the Silicon Valley because I still pity on those people who go for monotonous jobs in the Silicon Valley but I can definitely fortunate to be at a place where markets are being driven today and I see that happening more often from hereon. This whole thing is exciting and being an aspiring Entrepreneur, I do look forward to jumping into this sea sometime soon. InMobi is a classic example of what I am talking about, Naveen Tiwari – an IIT graduate going for his MBA at Harvard Business School and then returning back after a brief stint to drive a business from India.

Let us take a look at the Mobile Advertising industry and InMobi today in this post.

InMobi:

  • InMobi started as Mkhoj. I remember using it occasionally earlier but I rarely used Internet on mobile phones those days. What amazed me with InMobi was not only they were smart to tap into an opportunity but also re-built their whole business from scratch even after Mkhoj. I have always believed that Entrepreneurs should always be smart to tap opportunities in the market and should not resist change and that is what defines leadership. Leaders don’t talk about existing systems and processes but they talk about how the system can be challenged for the good. Resisting change is not the sign of growth and prosperity. In my view, InMobi led this aspect by a perfect example.
  • The 60:40 revenue model is very exciting. Basically, InMobi connects the advertisers and publisher. Naveen mentioned in his interview that if $100 comes from the advertiser, InMobi gives $60 to the publisher, keeping $40 within itself. According to me, before hearing to this numbers, I never believed that a high share as much as 40% could be made this way. There are lot of players who are into advertising domains and the most common of them are the ones who divert traffic to certain blogs. But honestly speaking, I never heard of anyone mentioning as high percentage of share as 40% earlier. Kudos to the InMobi team for pulling this through.
  • The Management team of InMobi comes from varied backgrounds like MBAs, BTechs from top class schools like IITs, ISB, XLRI, HBS and XLRI to name a few. This makes the team very strong. I am not surprised why such a team should not get funded and especialy when they are doing so good.
  • InMobi has given companies like Google run for its money. InMobi is in over 140 countries in the world today serving ads to over 200 million users uniquely every month across the globe. In Japan and Europe, it is number 2. In United States where we have entered about 7-8 months ago, it is number 3 or number 4 in the market.  Isn’t it really interesting? Yes it is.
  • Naveen already talked about acquisitions and according to him, InMobi will be acquiring its first company in 3-4 months. Amazing work and my prediction is that they might either buy someone in the US or China/Korea. Why US? Because by buying in US, InMobi can give the open war with Google and Apple in the market. With Google buying AdMob and Apple buying Quattro Wireless, it will be a very good competition to watch for when an Indian company declaring big on the US shores. Why China/Korea? Because InMobi has expansion plans in these areas because of obvious big user space. Acquiring a company in China/Korea can give InMobi quick access to its vast market.
  • For people interested in this space, I would strongly recommend to go through some of the case studies of InMobi. Some of the case studies are quite appealing. I have a personal experience of their presence with Reebok T-Shirt ad during IPL and I quite enjoyed it. Going through the other case studies could give very nice perspectives.

Lets now come to the Mobile Advertising space, in general. I know that there is a lot of buzz in the air for mobile startups. With official launch of 3G in India, the whole VC industry and Entrepreneurs are going ga-ga over it. Even one of my own initiatives, might go that way in future but as of now, I am closely watching this space. One more addition to this space, would be tablets. Android and Apple are going to have an awesome time of their life. The curiosity to explore this space has made me to buy a 3G phone and have also, recently ordered iPad 2 for my own person experiments. More on the personal front, sometime later but lets try to put some interesting facts that I collected while reading through the consumer and market trend reports of InMobi. Kindly remember these facts are directly taken from the reports of InMobi website and I hold no guarantee of correctness of data.

  • Informa Telecoms & Media estimates that the global mobile data services market , including mobile advertising, was worth
    U.S. $224 billion in 2010. Over the next four years the market will increase to U.S. $340 billion in 2014.
  • 15 emerging countries – China, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Russia, Poland and Ukraine – offer substantial investment opportunities for the telecom and advertising industries due to the sheer volume of mobile subscriptions in these markets, and continuing mobile penetration. It is not surprising to note that 30% of mobile data services revenues were generated by these 15 countries in 2010. So, what do you feel is driving these revenues in these countries? Obviously, the low cost feature-rich mobile phones. Visit India and watch any person, to day there might be more mobile phones in India than the toilets.
  • According to Informa, the mobile phone subscriber market of India and China alone will be around 734 million in 2014 from 334 million in 2010.
  • Informa also quotes that the global mobile advertising revenues will rise from $3.5 Bn in 2010 to $24 Bn by 2015, with Asia Pacific contributing to 31% of the share, led by India and China.
  • InMobi research gives very impressive signals on usage of mobile advertisements by consumers when they get free apps or 10% discount on their phone bill. A significant number of consumers might also be attracted to personalized ads. At the same time, consumers have been found to have less attention to free and useful ads.
  • Comfort level of consumers with the mobile advertisements is one of the biggest strong findings in the InMobi research. People seem to be very comfortable rather being apprehensive.
  • InMobi grew by 21% from December, 2010 to March, 2011 giving strong signals of global rise in mobile advertising industry.
  • The Key driver of markets now is the smartphones, which in itself grew by 34%.
  • Android took over as the most used OS over iPone OS. Nokia OS still continues to lead the market share but Android and iPhone are closing on it. The recent Nokia-Microsoft Partnership is a clear example of worries of Nokia losing its mobile platform share rapidly.
  • Android and Apple are clear favorites in the OS platform in both Europe and US while Apple is the largest manufacturer of mobile phones in both US and Europe. The market of US is primarily driven by smartphones where the growth is as high as 50% in the 90 days with Apple growing the most due to its tie-up with Verizon.

Personally, overall, I feel mobile advertising space is going to be a very interesting space to look forward to. I feel more and more Indian companies are going to give US companies a run for its money in future. Its the time for India and we are stepping into a golden era. More companies like InMobi are going to start from emerging markets to penetrate later into developed markets of US, Japan and Europe. I see a brand new Silicon Valley being built but this time, we will be in the driver seat. I would love to see the next “Black Swan” of this world happening from India and I hope to be part of this amazing event.

References:

  1. CNBC TV18 Naveen’s Interview on Young Turks – http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/check-out-who-is-giving-googlerun-for-its-money_537155.html
  2. InMobi Company – http://www.inmobi.com/
  3. InMobi Research – http://www.inmobi.com/research/
  4. InMobi Company – http://www.inmobi.com/company/
  5. InMobi Blog – http://www.inmobi.com/inmobiblog/

Global Economic Growth to decrease

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BBC News reported World Bank’s report of slower economic growth in the year 2011. World Bank has predicted that global GDP growth will be 3.3% against 3.9% in 2010. It has also predicted a strong growth in the emerging economies with India and China leading from the front.

Well, let us try to take a closer look. Please note that I am not an expert. I am just a reader of news who have developed an interest into looking at different things and hope to share my thoughts. I have no doubt that the India and Chine are going to lead the world economic growth but at what cost. China is keeping its currency manipulated so that its exports benefits the country’s position. India, though not exactly an export-oriented country but definitely a service-providing company. Products are not generally produced here rather they are definitely serviced here.

Even though I, too bet on the Indian and Chinese economies, I have few concerns. Firstly, the population. There is no control over the population in these countries. And till date there is no solid system to measure unemployment or the population itself correctly. In such a scenario, would it safe to have its per-capita, GDP and other measures of economy to be absolutely correct. I doubt it. Secondly, I still don’t believe that the consumption power is good here. I would request someone to find out if the commodities and goods produced in China are really consumed within the country. I believe that the figures could be surprising for some. I still feel that majority of goods are consumed not here rather outside. So, I feel that the real consumer base is the developed countries. Having said that, i must say that we are improving but it is going to take quite a time to catch up. Thirdly, dependency on Oil. We all know all the emerging and developing countries rely heavily on Oil, whose price is hovering around $90. I feel that that Oil price should be around $120. One thing that China and India say in their defense in terms of their oil consumption is their per capita consumption is far less than the consumption of US. But boss, China and India has the largest and second largest population of the world. You guys take the call. Are the defensive statements justified? Lastly, Food Inflation. Inflation of food is at its peak. We have seen the effect of increase in the prices of Onion in India. People went crazy and made the hell out of the government. In the past, we have seen that the governments have lost power at the Central government in the past. Oppositions won over the ruling government just on the basis of high Onion price. Considering the current scenario, all the vegetables are at their record high. How it is going to affect the people and the economy, in general, would be interesting to watch closely but I am sure if the situation remains same as of now, India will definitely suffer.

Comparing the prevailing scenarios of developing and emerging countries’ scenarios, economies of developed countries will have to also tackle few obstacles. Among all of them, the most important and challenging thing will be “Unemployment” World Bank predicts that the unemployment scenario would remain dismal. So, I feel it is going to hurt more than anything else for them. Secondly, European scenario does look so good as of now.  I somehow feel that the European debt crisis is going to remain bad and it might not improve as quickly as we might have wanted it to. Thirdly, the government debt will continue to mount and may cause imbalances in their statements, not a good sign at all.

To conclude, I feel that the all the economies of the world will see some nice challenges and if they are tackled appropriately, I am sure that we will redefine how businesses will be done in future. Hope that the future brings more prosperity and happiness all around, equally :-)

Update on World Food Crisis

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The problem of food crisis does not seem to calm down in the near future due to affect of climate changesa ll across the worls.
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June 10, 2008
The Food Chain

Worries Mount as Farmers Push for Big Harvest

By DAVID STREITFELD and KEITH BRADSHER

GRIFFIN, Ind. — In a year when global harvests need to be excellent to ease the threat of pervasive food shortages, evidence is mounting that they will be average at best. Some farmers are starting to fear disaster.

American corn and soybean farmers are suffering from too much rain, while Australian wheat farmers have been plagued by drought.

“The planting has gotten off to a poor start,” said Bill Nelson, a Wachovia grains analyst. “The anxiety level is increasing.”

Randy Kron, whose family has been farming in the southwestern corner of Indiana for 135 years, should have corn more than a foot tall by now. But all spring it has seemed as if there were a faucet in the sky. The rain is regular, remorseless.

Some of Mr. Kron’s fields are too soggy to plant. Some of the corn he managed to get in has drowned, forcing him to replant. The seeds that survived are barely two inches high.

At a moment when the country’s corn should be flourishing, one plant in 10 has not even emerged from the ground, the Agriculture Department said Monday. Because corn planted late is more sensitive to heat damage in high summer, every day’s delay practically guarantees a lower yield at harvest.

“This is pushing my nerves to the limit,” Mr. Kron said one recent morning, the sky as dark as the unplanted earth.

Last winter, as the full scope of the global food crisis became clear, commodity prices doubled or tripled, provoking grumbling in America, riots in two dozen countries and the specter of greatly increased malnutrition.

As the world clamors for more corn, wheat, soybeans and rice, farmers are trying to meet the challenge. Millions of acres are coming back into production in Europe. In Asia, planting two or three crops in a single year is becoming more common.

American farmers are planting 324 million acres this year, up 4 million acres from 2007. Too much of the best land is waterlogged, however. Indiana and Illinois have been the worst hit, although Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota were inundated last weekend.

Bob Biehl, whose farm is near St. Louis, has managed to plant only 140 of the 650 acres he wanted to devote to corn. Some farmers in his area “haven’t even been able to take the tractor out of the shed,” he said.

United States soybean plantings are running 16 percent behind last year. Rice is tardy in Arkansas, which produces nearly half the country’s crop. “We’re certainly not going to have as good a crop as we had hoped,” said Harvey Howington of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association. “I don’t think this is good news for anybody.”

Harvests ebb and flow, of course. But with supplies of most of the key commodities at their lowest levels in decades, there is little room for error this year. American farmers are among the world’s top producers, supplying 60 percent of the corn that moves across international borders in a typical year, as well as a third of the soybeans, a quarter of the wheat and a tenth of the rice.

“If we have bad crops, it’s going to be a wild ride,” said the Agriculture Department’s chief economist, Joseph Glauber. “There’s just no cushion.”

As every farmer knows, trouble can come at any point before the harvest is complete. Danny and Karen Smith get up in the middle of the night at their wheat farm in Milton, Kan., whenever they hear thunder.

In a few weeks, the wheat they planted last fall will be ripe. A bad storm or, worse, a tornado could destroy it. Last year, the Smiths lost nearly all their wheat to a late freeze compounded by too much rain.

This year, the weather has been perfect: cool and moist. “See how plump these berries are?” Mr. Smith said, standing in the middle of one of his fields. “This will feed a lot of people.”

The world wheat harvest is forecast to rise more than 8 percent this year, because of better weather and more acreage under cultivation. But even this bright spot is tentative. Australia was expected to emerge from a two-year drought, but that prediction is looking somewhat doubtful.

With the exception of southwestern Australia and a small corner of southeastern Australia, little rain has fallen in recent months. Many wheat farmers have been unable to plant at all, said Bob Iffla, the chairman of the country’s Wheat Growers Association.

As a result, the harvest is likely to be below average: 5 million to 15 million tons of wheat available for export, compared with 17 million or 18 million tons in an average year.

China also faces trouble: the agriculture ministry issued an urgent notice to wheat and rice farmers in southern China on Sunday, telling them to harvest as much of their crop as possible immediately in the face of unseasonable torrential rains expected to rake the region for the next 10 days.

In the American corn belt, the issue has also been getting the rain to stop. After heavy rains and flooding last weekend, the price of corn on the commodity markets rose Monday to a record $6.57 a bushel.

“We can’t snap our fingers and make high yields,” said Emerson D. Nafziger, a professor of agronomic extension at the University of Illinois. “We still depend on the weather.”

A universal saying among farmers is that high prices never last, because they encourage production that fills the demand and drives down the prices. The current crisis is testing that theory. With costs soaring for fertilizer and diesel, the expenses of farming are so high that the urge to plant more is battling, in some places, with the temptation to plant nothing.

Prajoub Suksapsri in Ayutthaya, Thailand, is among the farmers going all-out this year. For the first time in two decades of farming, Mr. Prajoub is preparing to plant a second crop of rice on his land, which usually does not have irrigation.

He and his neighbors have risked their savings to set up a system to pump water into their fields. If rice prices stay high, Mr. Prajoub could make the biggest profit he has seen in years from his two-acre farm. But if prices fall, he could face heavy losses.

“Sometimes I lie awake at night, worrying about it,” he said, watching his new Honda generator chug steadily, running the pumps. The landlord for the fields that he rents is charging him more than triple the usual amount just for the right to plant an extra harvest.

“He is sucking my blood,” Mr. Prajoub said.

Helen Gabriel’s farm in south-central Luzon Island in the Philippines also measures two acres and lacks irrigation. Faced with soaring costs for diesel, fertilizer, rice seed and insecticide, she has made a different decision from Mr. Prajoub.

“We will have no crop this year,” Mrs. Gabriel said as she waited in a three-hour line for the right to buy 4.4 pounds of government-subsidized rice.

World stockpiles of rice are likely to shrink slightly this year, excluding Chinese food security reserves that are not available for world trade, after already dwindling markedly in six of the last eight years, said Concepcion Calpe, a Food and Agriculture Organization rice specialist in Rome.

That estimate does not take into account the turmoil in Arkansas. Last year, the rice crop in Arkansas yielded a record 160 bushels an acre. This year, experts there say, 150 bushels will be an achievement.

“There’s no doubt about it, we’re not going to have the rice to export,” said Carl Frein of Farmers Marketing Service in Brinkley, Ark. “Poor countries like Haiti, I don’t know what they’re going to do.”

For all the apprehension this year, the growing season is still young, with plenty of time for the situation to improve — or for crops to fail.

“I’ve seen mediocre starts get a bit better, and mediocre starts get a whole lot worse,” said Mr. Nelson, the grains analyst.

Mr. Kron, the Indiana farmer, gave up on corn last week after managing to plant — and in some cases replant — only about half of his 1,200 acres.

Last year, his corn yielded 150 bushels an acre. This year, he will be happy to get 130 bushels. He has warned his processor, Azteca Milling, which makes flour for tortillas and chips, that he will be short.

Mr. Kron’s prospects are deteriorating. He was hoping to plant soybeans on some of his unused corn ground, but hundreds of those acres adjoin the swollen Wabash River. On Monday, the fields started flooding.

“I don’t know if this is the worst year we’ve ever had, but it’s moving up the list pretty quick,” the farmer said.

David Streitfeld reported from Indiana and Kansas. Keith Bradsher reported from Thailand and the Philippines.

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Courtesy: New York Times

Sub-Prime Crisis and India

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Well, the Sub-Prime Crisis has now taken the sweat and blood of every economy with USA leading the list; indicating one of the worst recession in the last 30 years. Before I put my opinions, let me start with a small introduction to what is this crisis is all about. I have kept it as simple so as to be followed by any reader.

In the last 5-7 years, the reality prices soar like a bubble and as expected, it inflated so much that it got busted. The reality prices rose to the sky-high with not a single country being left affected, including India. Now, banks started with the loan system of availing the homes with almost no hassle and low interest rates riding high on the strong economic growth. In fact, later part, the banks gave loan without any scrutiny and with the options of no down payment and customers availing all the amount through loan. Customers were happy and so does the banks, The banks, then, started giving the bunch of these loan in the form of funds
to other investment firms as that of Bears. So, when everybody was happy, where did it go wrong?

The problem came when the reality sector got busted and prices fell. The customers backed out and so the firms like Bears got busted and banks, including the largest bank of the world-CitiBank recording huge losses; pulling down the US markets and the economy and many other problems.

Now, what makes India not getting affected so much with this crisis; holding strong when all the economies of the world have fumbled. The answer is CORRUPTION. Strange; right. Lets take a scenario in India to understand it better. When a house is brought, it gets registered at a considerable low price; thus, paying the remaining balance amount in BLACK money. Now, suppose, a person who buys an apartment for 80 lakhs shows 40-50 lakhs as registration in order to save tax and making out the rest from his BLACK income. Now, even though the price of the flat fall, the margin is such it has to fall considerably to make out this difference.

So, if we feel we are not affected, let us think twice in true terms. We are affected but is not visible in the short term but the long-term implications could be devastating. US economy may be struggling now but its fundamentals are so strong that it will definitely bounce back. But what about India, where major part of the country is controlled by few people, corruption and dirty politics. Not to forget, here government controls the RBI and various factors like inflation. What if they supress it for their benefits as elections are knocking at the door. Don’t forget how BJP suppressed the inflation figure during last time General Elections to put forward false “India Shining” campaign.

I support US economy here because the visibility is more and clear as they are privately owned bodies and privately owned bodies can’t take the losses onto them.